Decision-Making Experiment: Choices Among Gambles Part 1

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Look at Choice No. 1 below. Each gamble can be thought of as a container that holds exactly 100 tickets. The tickets are all identical, but they have different cash prizes printed on them. You get to choose the container from which a ticket will be drawn randomly. You win the amount of money printed on the ticket. Which gamble would you rather play?


1.
First Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $100
   50 tickets to win $0

  OR
Second Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $35
   50 tickets to win $25

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


The First Gamble in this choice (on the left) has 50 tickets that win $100 and 50 that win $0. If someone chooses the First Gamble, half the time they would draw a ticket that pays $0 and half the time they would draw a ticket to win $100. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either $0 or $100.

The Second Gamble (on the right) has 100 tickets also, but 50 of these win $25 and 50 of them win $35. The second gamble thus guarantees at least $25, but the most you can win is $35.

Some people will prefer the First Gamble and some will prefer the Second Gamble. To mark your choice, click the button next to First or Second Gamble. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice.

Your task is to work through these choices at a steady pace, while being as careful as you can to click the gamble that you would rather play. We are measuring the time it takes to make each choice, but you should read each gamble carefully and decide which gamble is better, in your opinion. Accuracy is more important than speed, but you should work through all 31 choices without taking a a break and without making any errors. After you make each choice, click the "next trial" to start the timer and display the next choice. You can change your choice by clicking the gamble you prefer to play, but do not go back after you have clicked the "next trial" link.

On May 20, 2009, after people have finished their choices, three people will be selected randomly to play one gamble for real money. One trial will be selected randomly from all of the trials, and if you were one of these lucky people, you will get to play the gamble you chose on the trial selected. You might win as much as $100. Any one of the choices might be the one you get to play, so choose carefully.

Please read the above instructions again and then click here to continue.
 

 



 
First Gamble:
    (The first gamble will
    appear here)

  OR
Second Gamble:
    (The second gamble will
    appear here)

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


Click "Next Trial" to Begin

 

 



1.
First Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $100
   50 tickets to win $0

  OR
Second Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $35
   50 tickets to win $25

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



2.
First Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $100
   50 tickets to win $0

  OR
Second Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $45
   50 tickets to win $35

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



3.
First Gamble:
   70 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $50
   20 tickets to win $0

  OR
Second Gamble:
   70 tickets to win $80
   10 tickets to win $50
   20 tickets to win $0

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



4.
First Gamble:
   35 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $35
   55 tickets to win $25

  OR
Second Gamble:
   55 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $35
   35 tickets to win $25

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



5.
First Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $44
   10 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



6.
First Gamble:
   01 tickets to win $100
   20 tickets to win $49
   20 tickets to win $45
   59 tickets to win $4

  OR
Second Gamble:
   01 tickets to win $100
   20 tickets to win $97
   20 tickets to win $11
   59 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



7.
First Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $98
   10 tickets to win $2
   80 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $40
   10 tickets to win $40
   80 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



8.
First Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $14
   05 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $90
   05 tickets to win $12
   05 tickets to win $12

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



9.
First Gamble:
   45 tickets to win $58
   45 tickets to win $56
   10 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   45 tickets to win $96
   45 tickets to win $4
   10 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



10.
First Gamble:
   95 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $48

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



11.
First Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $96
   20 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



12.
First Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $100
   45 tickets to win $44
   45 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $100
   45 tickets to win $96
   45 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



13.
First Gamble:
   05 tickets to win $96
   95 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $52
   90 tickets to win $12

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



14.
First Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $50
   05 tickets to win $50

  OR
Second Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $100
   05 tickets to win $7

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



15.
First Gamble:
   59 tickets to win $100
   20 tickets to win $49
   20 tickets to win $45
   01 tickets to win $4

  OR
Second Gamble:
   59 tickets to win $100
   20 tickets to win $97
   20 tickets to win $11
   01 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



16.
First Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $14
   05 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   25 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $90
   70 tickets to win $12

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



17.
First Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $98
   80 tickets to win $40
   10 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $40
   80 tickets to win $40
   10 tickets to win $40

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



18.
First Gamble:
   70 tickets to win $89
   10 tickets to win $88
   20 tickets to win $11

  OR
Second Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $90
   10 tickets to win $13
   10 tickets to win $12

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



19.
First Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $44
   50 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   50 tickets to win $96
   50 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



20.
First Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $44
   10 tickets to win $40
   80 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $4
   80 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



21.
First Gamble:
   05 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $12
   90 tickets to win $3

  OR
Second Gamble:
   05 tickets to win $52
   05 tickets to win $48
   90 tickets to win $3

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



22.
First Gamble:
   20 tickets to win $58
   20 tickets to win $56
   60 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   20 tickets to win $96
   20 tickets to win $4
   60 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



23.
First Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $14
   05 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $90
   10 tickets to win $12

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



24.
First Gamble:
   10 tickets to win $98
   90 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   20 tickets to win $40
   80 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



25.
First Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $44
   10 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $100
   10 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $4

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



26.
First Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $44
   10 tickets to win $40

  OR
Second Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $96
   10 tickets to win $10

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



27.
First Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $98
   10 tickets to win $98
   10 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $98
   10 tickets to win $40
   10 tickets to win $40

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



28.
First Gamble:
   85 tickets to win $100
   15 tickets to win $50

  OR
Second Gamble:
   95 tickets to win $100
   05 tickets to win $7

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



29.
First Gamble:
   48 tickets to win $44
   48 tickets to win $40
   04 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   48 tickets to win $96
   48 tickets to win $4
   04 tickets to win $2

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



30.
First Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $98
   10 tickets to win $2

  OR
Second Gamble:
   80 tickets to win $98
   20 tickets to win $40

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 



31.
First Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $100
   05 tickets to win $96
   05 tickets to win $12

  OR
Second Gamble:
   90 tickets to win $100
   05 tickets to win $52
   05 tickets to win $48

  Choose First Gamble   Choose Second Gamble
  next trial 


 

 

 

 


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